Insights from the NRHC Panel’s opening remarks session

At the recent NRHC (National Rental Home Council) event, leaders from across the single-family rental (SFR) industry came together to discuss the current state of the market. Panelists included Brad Hunter of Site Study, the CEO of Ark Homes, and representatives from Resi and Brandywine Asset Management. The conversation painted a complex picture of both caution and long-term optimism.

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A Cautious Environment for Big Bets

Uncertainty continues to define the investment landscape in 2025. With the capital markets under strain and the cost of borrowing significantly higher than in previous years, making bold moves is a tough sell. Panelists agreed: it’s not an ideal time for major investments.

Still, there’s conviction in the long-term resilience of the SFR space. As homeownership remains out of reach for many, the rental market is expected to remain a stable and attractive option for both residents and capital.

The Tariff Impact: An Unfolding Story

Recent tariff policies have introduced new pressures. While the administration frames them as positive long term, they could cause short term pain.

With rising costs and slowing demand, the environment feels like stagflation. It’s not just about reading the headlines—it’s about translating policy changes into real-time adjustments in business metrics. The panel emphasized staying nimble in the face of volatile inputs like imported lumber and construction materials.

If tariffs persist, expect further strain on deal flow and new construction. Starts are already down 50% even without the full impact of tariffs. Some hope this pressure might prompt the Federal Reserve to lower rates—but that’s uncertain given the federal debt load.

Several panelists pegged the chance of a near-term recession at 60%.

Policy Watch: Fannie Mae, Liquidity, and Regulation

Looking ahead, key questions loom over the Fannie Mae lending markets for multifamily housing. Any disruption here could have a bigger impact than tariffs. Maintaining capital liquidity is crucial, and there’s concern that market freezes could stifle growth.

There’s also growing political chatter about limiting institutional ownership of single-family homes. Panelists pushed back on the idea, noting that institutional ownership often leads to better property management, professional maintenance, and improved renter experiences.

Housing Supply: Glimmers of Good News

On the supply side, there’s a modest bright spot: mortgage rates are trending down, recently dipping to 4.3% from a peak of 5%. While that may eventually help boost activity, the market remains cautious.

Renter Demand and Behavior

Renters remain firmly in place. Homeownership is still financially out of reach for many, and household formation is happening later in life. Mobility continues to be a key value for today’s renters.

Leasing velocity has slowed slightly compared to the post-pandemic boom. In markets like Austin, where there was a surge in multifamily construction, lease-up times have increased due to increased competition.

That said, renewal rates are strong. In Q4, one panelist reported an 80% renewal rate—a positive sign of renter stability and satisfaction.

Operational Adjustments: Tech, Maintenance, and Screening

Operationally, companies are tightening up. Many are moving maintenance in-house in markets with high home density, reducing response times and improving service.

Technology adoption is on the rise, especially around AI-powered lead conversions and smarter dispatch for maintenance. Fraud prevention has also become a priority, with enhanced tenant screening now commonplace. That includes bank account verification and identity checks to prevent costly evictions. Thanks to these measures, eviction rates are holding steady at 1–2%.

Acquisitions: Still a Tough Market

Acquiring new homes remains a challenge. “Buy, sell, or hold?” one panelist asked rhetorically. The consensus: it’s mostly a “hold or sell” market. Buyers are submitting 30+ bids just to land a single property.

Scattered-site acquisitions are particularly difficult, leading some to explore build-to-rent opportunities. However, that segment of the market has also been relatively quiet.

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Bottom Line

2025 is shaping up to be a year of careful navigation for the single-family rental industry. While macro uncertainty, tariffs, and policy questions loom large, the long-term fundamentals—renter demand, housing scarcity, and institutional professionalism—continue to support the thesis that SFR is a durable place to park capital.

As one panelist put it: “It’s not a market for bold moves—it’s a market for smart ones.”

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